主题Topic：Effects of Open Skies Agreements on BilateralTraveler Flow and Service Export and Import Trades: The Case of Canada takinginto account of the effects of US Open Skies
时间Time：2月24号（周五）｜February24, 2017 (Friday), 10：30 - 11：30 AM
地点Venue：文澜楼一楼108会议室｜ConferenceRoom 108，WENLAN
主讲 / Speaker
TaeHoon OUM 博士, 现为英属哥伦比亚大学尚德商学院（SauderSchool of Business）教授，及航空运输学会（Air Transport Research Society）主席。目前为Transport Policy总编辑。曾为12家国际杂志工作，并担任Journal of Transport Economics andPolicy 杂志编辑。还是唯一一位被安柏瑞德航空航天大学评出的杰出教授。
由他撰写及协作撰写的书籍达36本，发表超过130余篇论文，其中多篇是为如世界银行、经济合作与发展组织（OCED）、国际运输论坛、APEC、国际民航组织（ICAO）等国际机构合作的。也曾为加拿大、美国、英国、荷兰、日本、韩国、澳大利亚、新西兰、新加坡、土耳其等国的政府机构、监管委员会、大型公司等提供过研究报告。
此外，作为主讲和邀请嘉宾，他发表过超过350场演讲，商务课对象包括：荷兰交通经济事务部门、英国竞争委员会、英国民航局、英国铁路监管机构、美国电报电话公司、澳大利亚的消费者&竞争委员会、加拿大航空公司、美国联合航空公司、西北航空、日本航空、全日空航空公司、大韩航空公司、澳洲航空、维珍蓝色航空、土耳其航空公司等。目前他主要为加拿大航空和大韩航空提供全球化战略咨询。
研究领域 / ResearchInterests
经济、运输/物流管理策略、运输/物流政策、公共事业
Economics，ManagementStrategy and Policy Analysis in Transport/Logistics，PublicUtility
摘要/ Abstract
Modelsfor measuring the effects of Open Skies Agreements (OSAs) on bilateral trafficflow and on service export and import trades are constructed, and applied toCanada’s bilateral traveler flow and service trade export and import data. The indirect effects of US Open Skiesagreement on Canada’s bilateral foreign traffic flow and services trades arealso investigated. Our service trade data includes GATS Mode 1 (cross-countrytrade) and Mode 2 (cross-border consumption) service trades data.
Methodology:
Weuse ‘Difference-in-Differences’ (DID) approach to identify the effects of OSAssigned by Canada on its bilateral travelers flow and as a consequence, itsbilateral international Service trade. The DID approach was first proposed in Ashenfelter and Card (1995), andhas become very popular in estimating ‘treatment effect’. The DID approach isapplied on a panel data of Canadian bilateral travelers flow and Service tradeflows with more than 60 countries from year 2000 to year 2013: the ‘treatmentgroup’, where OSAs were signed by Canada during our sample period, and the‘control group’, where OSA had not been signed as of the end date of sampleperiod. In addition, we also test the indirect effect of US OSAs signed onCanadian traveler flow and service trade with the same bilateral countries.Specifically, a two-stage DID regression is estimated to address potentialendogeneity between bilateral incoming and outgoing traveler volumes andService export and import trades with first stage modeling the OSA effect onbilateral traveler flow, and second stage studying the effect of traveler flowon the Service trade.
Manyof the past research on regulatory policy changes including changes in airtransport policy and international trade policy have not treated the time lageffects of such policy changes adequately. As a results, the effects of theregulatory relaxations may have been underestimated. We believe the biggestbang for improving measurement on the effects of regulatory changes or freetrade agreements is to incorporate the time lag effects of such policy changesproperly. Thus our DID model specifically incorporates ‘time-variant’ OSA‘treatment effect’ to allow for free variation of the time lag effects of OSAon bilateral traveler volume and the international Service export and importtrades.
Thekey findings are:
(A) Effects on Travel flow from bilateral ASA (AirService Agreement) partner countries:
1. Canada’s OSAs (US Open Skies) have strongpositive (negative) effects on increasing (decreasing) travelers into/out ofCanada from the OSA partner countries;
2. The Canada’s OSA effects on the bilateraltraveler inflow/outflow follow longer than five year time lags;
3. US Open Skies, on average, decreases theCanada’s traveler inflow to/from the US OSA partner countries;
(B) Effects on Total Service Trade to the bilateralASA partner countries:
4. Canada’s OSAs (US Open Skies) have strongpositive (negative) effects on increasing (decreasing) Canada’s total servicesexport/import to/from the partner countries, and these effects on servicetrades also occur with longer than five year time lags;
5. The total effect of Canada’s OSAs (US OpenSkies) is to increase (decrease) Canada’s services trades to/from the partnercountries;
(C) Effects on ‘Commercial Service’ (the largestpart of Service Trades) Trade to the bilateral ASA partners:
6. Canada’s OSAs (US Open Skies) have strongpositive (negative) effects on increasing (decreasing) Canada’s CommercialServices trades to/from the partner countries, and these effects occur withmore than five year time lags;
7. The total effect of Canada’s OSAs (US OpenSkies) is to increase (to reduce) Canada’s Commercial services trades to/fromthe partner countries.
