主题｜Topic：Monetary policy and housing bubbles with rational and naive types
时间｜Time：09.23（周五）14: 00-15: 30
地点｜Venue：文澴楼教室｜Class Room 215，WENHUAN
主讲｜Speaker
段堃，英国南安普顿大学经济学博士，现为华中科技大学经济学院助理教授。主要研究领域为区域与城市经济、房地产市场与政策、环境经济。
研究领域｜Research Interests
区域与城市经济、房地产市场与政策、环境经济。
摘要｜Abstract
This paper studies whether and how monetary policy influences different types of housing bubbles in China. Through a conceptual framework allowing for bounded rationality. Two distant bubble types ie. rational and naive bubbles formed by speculative and extrapolative beliefs are respectively identified. Exogenous monetary policy shock is generated by estimating the endogenously switching rule that accommodates institutional facts in China. Using a panel dataset covering major China's cities. our fractional time series analysis reports that both the magnitude and type of housing bubbles evolve across cities over time while bubbles are mostly dominated by the rational type. Tightening monetary policy is found to exert a containing role in rational housing bubbles while its role in naive bubbles is less significant. Housing interventions with Chinese characteristics such as home purchase restrictions and land provision also exhibit varying impacts on different types of bubbles. Our results confirm effectiveness of contractionary monetary policy and purchase restrictions in combating housing bubbles in China thanks to nationwide dominance of the rational bubble type. We advance a theoretical explanation of our empirical findings according to definitions of different types of bubbles. A battery of additional analyses reassures robustness of our findings which possess important implications for healthy market operations
